Ultra-processed foods are everywhere — quick to grab, easy to heat, and designed to taste great. From fizzy drinks and packaged snacks to some ready meals, they’re convenient by design and hard to avoid.

That convenience may carry a cost...

A major analysis published on 28 April 2025 estimates that around 14% of premature UK deaths could be attributable to ultra-processed foods (UPFs).

It also found that for every 10% increase in UPFs as a share of your diet, the risk of death from any cause rose by about 3%.

This isn’t a call for perfection or cooking every meal from scratch. It’s about small, realistic shifts: understanding what counts as a UPF, why scientists think it might matter, and the seven easy swaps that can tilt your diet back toward simple, minimally processed foods — plus examples of ready meals that aren’t UPF to keep life practical.

What counts as “ultra-processed”?

UPFs are industrial formulations made mostly from extracted food substances (starches, oils, protein isolates) and often include cosmetic additives such as flavourings, colours, sweeteners, emulsifiers and stabilisers.

The widely used NOVA system classifies these as Group 4, based on the extent and purpose of processing, not nutrients alone. Think many fizzy drinks, confectionery, packaged snacks, some ready meals and reconstituted meat products.

In practice, UK advice is to keep free sugars, salt and saturated fat in check and base meals on simple ingredients, using the Eatwell Guide as a yardstick.

What the 2025 study found (plain English)

What the researchers did:

They combined results from long-term studies that tracked what people ate and how their health changed over time. Then they used those numbers to estimate how many early deaths (ages 30–69) might be linked to UPFs in eight countries, including the UK.

The headline numbers:

For every extra 10% of your diet that comes from UPFs, the risk of dying from any cause was about 3% higher. Using that link, the team estimated that around 14% of early deaths in the UK could be tied to UPFs.

What experts say:

This shows a strong association, but it doesn’t prove UPFs directly cause death. The estimates rely on modelling and assumptions, so the figures are best seen as population-level guidance, not a prediction for any one person.

Where official UK advice stands

SACN (the government’s nutrition committee) says links between (ultra-)processed foods and poorer health are concerning.

However, it remains uncertain how much is due to processing itself versus the usual nutrient profile of many UPFs (energy-dense, high in salt/sugar/saturated fat).

The everyday guidance stays the same: build meals from simple ingredients and use labels to keep the big three in check.

7 easy UK-friendly swaps

1. Breakfast → Choose porridge oats or unsweetened whole-grain flakes instead of sugary cereals; add fruit for sweetness.

2. Yoghurt → Go for plain live yoghurt + berries/nuts rather than dessert-style pots with sweeteners/thickeners.

3. Drinks → Make water, sparkling water, tea or coffee your default; keep fizzy drinks for now-and-then.

4. Lunch → Swap processed sandwich meats for tinned fish, eggs, hummus or leftover roast chicken in a whole-grain wrap.

5. Ready meals → Batch-cook simple freezer meals (veg + beans/lentils + wholegrains + herbs). Use passata/tinned tomatoes over additive-heavy sauces.

6. Snacks → Pick fruit, a small handful of nuts, oatcakes with peanut butter, or plain popcorn most days.

7. Dessert → Choose fruit or plain yoghurt with berries more often; keep packaged puddings occasional.

Budget tip: Frozen veg, tinned beans (in water) and tinned tomatoes are minimally processed, good value and fit the Eatwell Guide.

A Ready Meal That Isn’t UPF.

Some chilled or frozen meals are simply processed (NOVA Group 3) rather than ultra-processed (Group 4).

The difference is the ingredients list. If it reads like a home recipe — and doesn’t include flavourings (even “natural”), emulsifiers, stabilisers, sweeteners, colours, or modified starches — it’s unlikely to be UPF.

We looked at an Aldi chilled pizza and a packet of vegetable samosas, and a selection of Waitrose ready to eat meals. All of them passed the test, containing only normal food ingredients.

Examples of non-UPF ready meals (typical ingredients):

• Shepherd’s pie: potatoes, beef/lamb, onions, carrots, peas, tomatoes/passata, stock, milk, butter, oil, herbs, salt, pepper.

• Chicken & veg casserole: chicken, potatoes, carrots, onions, celery, stock, tomatoes, oil, herbs, salt, pepper.

• Fish pie: fish, potatoes, milk, butter, onions, parsley, flour, salt, pepper.

  
  

Likely UPF giveaway words: flavourings (even “natural”), emulsifiers (e.g., mono- & diglycerides, xanthan gum), stabilisers, sweeteners, colours, modified starch — especially several together.

Why might UPFs be linked to harm? (What scientists are testing)

We don’t yet know whether the processing itself is harmful or whether the issue is mainly the typical nutrient profile of many UPFs. But several plausible mechanisms are being studied:

• Over-consumption from texture & speed of eating. In a tightly controlled NIH inpatient trial, adults ate ~500 kcal/day more and gained weight on an ultra-processed diet versus an unprocessed one, even though meals were matched for calories, macronutrients, sugar, sodium and fibre. Faster eating and hyper-palatability likely played a role.

• Additives and the gut. In a double-blind human feeding study, the emulsifier carboxymethylcellulose (CMC) altered the gut microbiota and metabolome, reduced beneficial short-chain fatty acids, and increased post-meal abdominal discomfort in some participants (short duration; small sample).

• Sweeteners and glucose control (person-specific). A 2022 randomised human trial found that several non-nutritive sweeteners produced microbiome-dependent changes in glucose responses in some people, suggesting individual variability.

• Displacement of whole foods. Diets high in UPFs often crowd out fibre-rich staples (veg, fruit, pulses, wholegrains) linked with better cardiovascular and metabolic health — a key reason the Eatwell Guide pattern remains the practical target

Bottom line: these are plausible mechanisms with growing (but still limited) human evidence.

The practical takeaway doesn’t change: base most meals on simple ingredients; keep products high in free sugars, salt and saturated fat for occasional use.